Summary

• AUD/USD driven by risk sentiment in the near-term, not fundamentals: The pair continues to behave like a high-beta risk asset, with its correlation to global equities surging to 0.95 as stagflation fears and geopolitics dominate over RBA policy signals.
• Geopolitical optimism fuels rebound: Hopes of a potential breakthrough in reopening the Strait of Hormuz triggered a risk-on move, lifting AUD/USD back above 0.7120 and aligning with gains in US equity futures.
• Technical setup supports bullish continuation: Holding above 0.7090 keeps the uptrend intact, with a break above 0.7211 opening upside toward 0.7244–0.7300; failure below support risks a pullback toward 0.7033.

By Kelvin Wong

Since its April 17, 2026 intraday high of 0.7222, the AUD/USD (AUD:USD) has staged a minor corrective pullback of -1.6% within its medium-term uptrend phase in place since March 30, 2026 towards a near-term

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