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More on Today's Markets:
Intel Corporation (INTC) has gone from a down and out chip foundry company to a nearly $700 billion market valuation without any real success story. The company is surging again after President Trump pointed to another chip deal despite the lack of substance. My investment thesis is ultra Bearish on Intel now soaring far beyond all-time highs and any reasonable valuation based on current, or even future expectations.
Whether the stock is cheap or expensive on a fundamental basis doesn't really matter in this case; what may matter is how the options market is positioned heading into results. Like last quarter, this quarter the stock once again finds itself positioned heavily towards the call side of the equation.
Before the current war with Iran started, the FOMC was expected to cut the FFR (thus SOFR), thus floating-rate issues would see lower coupons and thus be less appealing than their fixed-rate siblings. The last FOMC meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, the committee voted to leave the FFR unchanged but almost half the committee favored at least one rate increase by year’s end. So, along with evaluating default risk, interest-rate risk needs to be figured into an investor’s due diligence process.
Against this background, this rest of this article will weave together another bullish argument based on my review of its FQ1 ER and also my outlook for its personal AI PC. In a nutshell, I see the company’s well-positioned to significantly expand its dominance in the AI ecosystem. Through its strategic alliance with Microsoft, I see large chance of a new secular growth driver for NDVA. In addition to the company's valuation from centralized enterprise data centers, I now see a new valuation vector from the massive consumer and professional device market based on lessons I learned from Apple iMac personal laptops as detailed next.
It would be easy to write a “nothing can touch this” article, slap a Strong Buy rating on it, and hit publish. It would also be wrong. I have a Hold rating on SNDK because I think the earnings estimates are unrealistic. In a year where the stock price increased by 4,600%, the earnings only increased by 83%. That gap gives me pause, and I think the stock has gotten too far ahead of earnings to justify a Buy or Strong Buy rating at this time.
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