Summary

• Oracle's 5-year CDS has been sitting near 200 bps since the spring, breaking above its 2008 financial crisis peak.
• AI infrastructure debt is moving into retail retirement accounts through target-date and core bond funds, and most participants have no idea they're holding any of it.
• Meta's $30B Hyperion financing through Blue Owl is the cleanest example of how hyperscalers are funding the buildout off-balance-sheet, with the rating dependent on a parent-company guarantee.
• The bull case still works, but it requires demand, power delivery, and refinancing to line up on the same timeline. If one slips, credit markets reprice before equity does.
• Hyperscaler capex is projected at around $700 billion in 2026, against operating cash flow of $720-760 billion, leaving the buildout increasingly dependent on debt issuance that Wall Street estimates could reach $1.5 trillion over the next several years.

I'm 21 years old, almost done with my finance degree, and I recently started a new job that has a 401(k) plan. I opened the portal, saw the default target-date fund, and figured this was the part of personal finance I

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