BTC realized volatility dropped from 56% to 41% as US-Iran tensions eased, while the 7-day average funding rate turned negative to -1.8%, its lowest reading since 2023.
Since 2020, 30-day BTC returns during negative funding periods averaged +11.5% versus +4.5% overall, with a 77% hit rate.
Sub -5% funding has produced +19.4% returns on 30-day horizons.
Hash rate has declined to the 16th percentile over 30 days, marking the densest concentration of episodes since China’s 2021 mining ban.
In 6 of 7 past drawdowns, BTC was higher 90 days later with a median gain of +37.7%.
fatido/iStock via Getty Images
Two historically bullish signals are flashing on bitcoin: negative funding rates and a clustered hash rate drawdown, as volatility cools.
Weekly Bitcoin ETP Flows (USD)
Following 5 consecutive weeks of outflows from 1/24 through 2/21
