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Nine Hawks Chasing A Storm That May Already Be Gone (SP500)
Deep Value Investing · 2026-06-18 · via All Articles on Seeking Alpha

Summary

  • Nine FOMC members penciled in rate hikes this week on an energy shock that a US-Iran MoU appears to already be unwinding.
  • The 10-year yield barely moved, which tells me that the market believes the Fed may keep the current inflation contained.
  • Energy drove 60% of May's CPI jump, and with Brent back in the $70s as Gulf flows normalize over the next weeks, I believe that pressure unwinds fast.
  • What I need now is for the core PCE to cool. If it stays sticky over the next few months, the odds of a real hike stop being theoretical.
Bull

alberto clemares expósito/iStock via Getty Images

In my June FOMC preview, I said a 2026 median dot at 3.6% or higher would spook the market. Well, even though Kevin Warsh was the only one who didn't put a dot on that chart, the median landed at

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