Summary

• Sandisk Corporation delivered a massive Q3 FY26 beat, with Q4 FY26 guidance far surpassing expectations.
• As I'm writing, the stock is down mid-single digits. Leaving aside HFT algorithms and short-term traders, I think there is one fundamental reason behind the drop.
• The reason for the selloff, in my view, is NBM pricing flexibility and whether these contracts truly protect Sandisk when NAND supply catches up.
• Longer term, China's YMTC's three new fabs will increase NAND capacity. For reference, that company had the same market share in 2025 as Sandisk.
• In the meantime (that risk may take years to materialize), I am surfing the memory supercycle. I own SNDK, and I wish I had more cash in my portfolio to buy the dip.

At first glance, I couldn’t find a clear rationale behind the selloff after Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) reported its Q3 FY26 earnings.

On Q3 results, the company reported $5.95B in sales, obliterating its previous guidance ($4.40B–$4.80B) and the Street's expectations of $4.72B. The

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SNDK, MU, STX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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