Summary

• NVIDIA remains the critical bellwether for the global AI capex cycle, with earnings expected to determine whether hyperscaler demand continues to accelerate or begins to plateau after a strong multi-month rally.
• Market expectations are extremely elevated, with options pricing implying a ~6-7% post-earnings move (~$350B market cap swing), making guidance on data centre revenue, Blackwell execution, and hyperscaler capex the key catalysts.
• Technically, NVDA shows early signs of relative strength deterioration despite its medium-term uptrend, with bearish divergence and Fibonacci exhaustion near 234.90 suggesting risk of a multi-week mean reversion toward 212-195 support zones.

By Kelvin Wong

Ahead of today’s NVIDIA (NVDA) Q1 earnings release after the US session close, NVDA remains the single-most important stock in global equities because it effectively determines whether the Artificial Intelligence (AI) capex supercycle is still accelerating.

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