There is an unmistakable correlation between the Manufacturing PMI and the 10yr minus 3-month Treasury (called the Yield Curve).
Both peaked late 2021, then in the next 12 months declined into negative territory and stayed there for nearly 3 years till December 2025.
It is no coincidence that both the yield curve and manufacturing began giving economically positive signals in December 2025 and have been positive since.
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There are four data sets on these two long-term charts, but only one is a measure of economic activity. The odd data set out is IndPro (Industrial Production). The other three are market sentiment-driven. That is, they reflect investor perceptions of
