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U.S. 10-Year Yield Risk Premium Continues To Rise
James Picerno · 2026-06-11 · via All Articles on Seeking Alpha

Summary

  • The Iran conflict and rising inflation risk have continued to widen the market premium for the 10-year yield relative to a fair value estimate.
  • Market conditions have clearly evolved in recent weeks, with the 10-year yield trending higher and closing at 4.56% in yesterday’s trading (June 10). The current yield is near a 12-month high.
  • The market premium is also climbing again.

James Picerno is the director of analytics at The Milwaukee Co., a wealth manager that is the adviser to The Brinsmere Funds, a pair of global asset allocation ETFs. He also edits CapitalSpectator.com and The US Business Cycle Research Report (CapitalSpectator.com/premium-research). He is the author of three books, including "Quantitative Investment Portfolio Analytics In R: An Introduction To R For Modeling Portfolio Risk and Return." Previously he was a financial journalist at Bloomberg and before that at Dow Jones.

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