Summary

• The offshore yuan appreciated nearly 5% against the dollar last year. The onshore yuan gained about 4.25%. Through yesterday, the offshore yuan has added roughly 2.4% this year, the onshore unit 2.6%.
• The yuan is not sprinting, but it is moving - and in a direction that Beijing, at least provisionally, is tolerating, if not encouraging.
• The PBOC's daily fix is the tell. The reference rate was set today at CNY6.8487, the lowest since March 2023.
• What matters is the direction of the fix itself, and the direction is unmistakably toward a stronger yuan.

The offshore yuan appreciated nearly 5% against the dollar last year. The onshore yuan gained about 4.25%. This year has picked up where 2025 left off. Through yesterday, the offshore yuan has added roughly 2.4% this year, the onshore unit 2.6%. That puts

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