Summary

• Geopolitical tensions are shifting toward negotiation, which could support risk assets over the medium term.
• Equity valuations remain near fair value, with strong earnings, especially in technology, supporting markets.
• The macro backdrop is more stable than feared, with resilient consumers, contained credit risks and structurally higher interest rates.

By Samuel Rines

Markets are being pulled in multiple directions. Geopolitical tensions, questions around Federal Reserve policy, and the rapid rise of artificial intelligence are all competing for investor attention.

But while the headlines suggest instability, the underlying

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