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Wall Street is coming off one of its best months in years. The best monthly gain since 2020—to be precise. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP:IND) surged over 15% in the span of only 30 days, while the S&P 500 (SP500) climbed 10% and the Dow Jones (DJI) climbed 7%. The advance has been powered by a resurgent AI infrastructure rally, ranging from triple-digit gains for players like Intel (INTC), to strong double-digit performances at AMD (AMD), Sandisk (SNDK), Cisco (CSCO) and Nvidia (NVDA).
SA commentary: "Despite inflationary pressures and high energy prices [given the ongoing conflict in Iran], historical May-July market seasonality and forward EPS upgrades support a continued bullish outlook," SA analyst Mike Zaccardi wrote in a new article. "Information Technology posted a 19% monthly gain, its best in over 20 years, and corporate earnings remain robust, with the S&P 500 pacing for a sixth straight quarter of double-digit YoY EPS growth, keeping valuations in check."
What about "Sell in May and go away"? The famous adage posits that stocks tend to underperform in the six months through October, so investors should convert to cash at the start of May and then buy into a dip later in the fall. The origins of the saying go back quite a while, with reasons ranging from vacation cycles to bonuses, and others noting that the worst market crashes of 1929 and Black Monday in 1987 occurred during this period. Steve Eisman says he sees no issue with market right nowOutlook: Many academic papers and market research have been written on "Sell in May," with breakdowns by stock class or periods of time. While seasonal patterns do exist, and equities could face some increased risk in the summer months, they still tend to go up over the long term despite additional volatility. Staying fully invested could also prove safer than trying to time the market in any given year, and there are countless factors out there for better portfolio decisions, such as earnings, interest rates, the macro landscape and tweets from the White House. Does 'Sell in May' strategy actually work?
Here's the latest Seeking Alpha analysis
What else is happening...
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan +0.4%. Hong Kong closed. China closed. India closed.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.6%. Paris closed. Frankfurt closed.
Futures at 6:30, Dow +0.2%. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq -0.1%. Crude +0.4% to $105.48. Gold -1% to $4,581.40. Bitcoin +1.7% to $77,318.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +1 bp to 4.39%.
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