Summary

• Oil prices have remained resilient near $100/barrel during the Strait of Hormuz crisis, defying projections of $150–200.
• Pre-crisis global inventory surpluses and strategic stock drawdowns provided critical market buffers, moderating price spikes.
• Alternative pipeline routes and increased U.S. exports, alongside supply from Oman, Brazil, Kazakhstan, and Libya, offset Gulf disruptions.
• China’s import reduction and the U.S.'s role as top producer have helped absorb some shock and temporarily shift price dynamics.

Generally, the oil market has surprised to the upside with its depth and breadth during the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis, with prices averaging around $100/barrel. The $150–200 some had projected has not manifest. Back in 2008, WTI oil prices (

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