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Act 2 Of The Rally: The U.S.-Iran Deal May Clear The Way ...
Deep Value Investing · 2026-06-16 · via All Articles on Seeking Alpha

Summary

  • The tape on Monday is telling me the market cares more about relief than perfect terms in the U.S.-Iran deal.
  • Did the U.S. win the war and get everything it wanted? I honestly don’t care, as long as Hormuz reopens this week. In my view, Hormuz is the signal.
  • The setup changed because the MoU landed before Warsh speaks this Wednesday. In my view, that may remove one ugly inflation headline from the Fed’s plate.
  • I now want to see two clean things before Friday: Israel stays out of the way, and Warsh avoids turning the press conference into a rate-scare event.
  • Apparently, I was dead wrong that the second leg would rotate into cleaner AI names. "The AMDs" of the world beating "the NVIDIAs" on Monday tells me momentum still owns this tape.
Man running on park path during sunset

SanyaSM/E+ via Getty Images

Things are moving fast. Very fast. Too fast!

It's been the third time that I have had to revisit this piece today (June 15), given the rapid updates around the MoU (memorandum of understanding) between the U.S. and Iran.

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