Summary

• The S&P 500 showed off the dueling forces of the ongoing AI boom and the rising likelihood of interest rate hikes affecting the direction of the U.S. stock market in the Juneteenth holiday-shortened trading week.
• The CME Group's FedWatch Tool has moved up the expected timing of a quarter-point increase in the Federal Funds Rate to a target range of 3.75-4.00% three months earlier, now expected the move to happen after the Fed meets on 16 September (2026-Q3).
• The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's estimate of real GDP growth for the U.S. economy in the current quarter of 2026-Q2 dipped to +3.0%, falling back from the previous week's real growth estimate of +3.3%.

The S&P 500 (SPX) showed off the dueling forces of the ongoing AI boom and the rising likelihood of interest rate hikes affecting the direction of the U.S. stock market in the Juneteenth holiday-shortened trading