Summary

• President Trump’s China trip aims to secure rare earth material access, with major tech, industrial, and finance executives present to facilitate negotiations.
• Key negotiation topics include AI chips, rare earths, tariffs, and possible large purchase agreements benefiting firms like Nvidia, Tesla, BlackRock, and Blackstone.
• The outcome’s bullishness hinges on rare earth concessions; failure here could benefit Western rare earth firms and the SETM ETF but would be bearish for markets overall.
• Risks include drawn-out negotiations via new trade and investment boards, which would likely disappoint markets compared to a substantive deal.

After weeks of delay, President Trump has arrived in China with the intent of ending the “trade truce” initiated with China last year. The specific goals of such a deal are largely unknown, as both sides are keeping their cards close, but one thing was different

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NVDA, AAPL, BX, BA, GE, MU, SETM either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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