Summary

• While I still believe Nvidia Corporation will reach $20 trillion by 2030, I believe much of that 310% return is likely to be back-half weighted in the years of 2028-2030.
• Last quarter, inventories increased more than 8% QoQ to $21.4 billion, but more importantly, NVDA's supply-related commitments surged.
• In Q4, NVDA's supply-related commitments surged nearly 90% sequentially to $95.2 billion, a major step-up from the prior ~$28-30 billion range through late FY25 and the first half of FY26.
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Recently, I've reiterated my $20 trillion market cap thesis for Nvidia Corporation (NVDA), which implies upside of roughly 310% over the next four years. However, my thesis does not hinge on Nvidia reaching that milestone through hardware

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NVDA, AMD either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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