Summary

• The price of oil has come to be widely recognized as a valuable real‑time gauge of Iran‑war risk.
• Moves toward either price extreme since the war started would signal a shift in macro expectations.
• Stability near the midpoint implies investors see the status quo holding - for now.

By James Picerno

Tensions between the US and Iran remain elevated as a fragile ceasefire holds, but the war’s trajectory is still highly uncertain. Assessing risk in real time is difficult given how quickly conditions on the

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