Summary

• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) appears to be bottoming out after suffering a 40% decline. Backed by a robust backlog and an on-track satellite launch schedule.
• Management projects FY2026 revenue exceeding half its $1.2B backlog, with a hockey stick growth inflection expected over the next two fiscal years.
• Liquidity of $3.5B is expected to cover near-term CapEx and negative free cash flow, supporting execution through 2026 and into FY28.
• I see there's increased visibility and clarity towards its execution over the next five to six months.
• Key risks include competitive pressure from SpaceX/Starlink Mobile and execution on the 45-satellite milestone by November 2026, with $130 as a critical resistance level.
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AST SpaceMobile: Launch With SpaceX for BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 maintains execution cadence

June has been an encouraging month for space investors, although not for all of them, especially not for AST SpaceMobile (

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