Summary

• Newmont Corporation, the world’s largest gold producer, is generating record free cash flow amid a structural gold bull market driven by central bank accumulation.
• NEM posted Q1 2026 revenue of $7.31B (+46% YoY), $3.1B in FCF, and a cash margin of $3,871/oz, with gold averaging $4,900/oz and AISC at $1,029/oz.
• The stock is rated a buy, trading below $110 with a fair value estimate of $145, supported by a robust $6B buyback and net cash balance sheet.
• Management guides for stable 2026 production (5.3M oz), conservative cost assumptions, and potential for guidance beats if high commodity prices persist.

Setting The Stage

Historically, there have been a number of narratives about gold that ran through every financial crisis, every dollar basement cycle and every surge in geopolitical uncertainty. However, the version that is playing out in 2026 is

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NEM either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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