Summary

• Unlike previous geopolitical events that largely redirected trade flows, war in the Middle East has constrained physical supply, disrupted logistics through the Strait of Hormuz, and forced widespread production shut‑ins.
• Shipping data illustrates how quickly the conflict translated into physical supply loss.
• With limited spare supply and shrinking buffers, adjustment is increasingly occurring through demand curtailment.
• Asian E&Ps and NOCs face elevated risk due to high Middle East exposure and import dependence, while global integrated companies show varying vulnerability depending on asset mix and geography.

The war in the Middle East has triggered one of the most disruptive upstream supply shocks seen in decades. Unlike previous geopolitical events that largely redirected trade flows, this conflict has constrained physical supply, disrupted logistics through the