Summary

• In H1 2026, part of my 2026 framework was confirmed: AI‑driven productivity, industrial strength, and utilities’ power‑demand tailwinds played out, while the Iran shock created the only major deviation from expectations.
• However, the macro backdrop is changing: Brent is back in contango, Warsh is firmly higher‑for‑longer, growth and labor remain resilient, and hyperscalers continue pushing toward trillion‑dollar cumulative AI capex.
• In this article, I want to update my 2026 outlook article, sharing what remains a valid call and what new sectors could be considered H2 winners.
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The H1 Report Card

Six months ago, I shared my 2026 market outlook and highlighted three main aspects.

I expected AI-driven productivity gains and broader earnings growth to appear; I expected a manufacturing rebound (in late 2025, the PMI was still in recession

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of RSP, IWM, MU, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, XLU either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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