Summary

• The market doesn’t even begin to approach a valuation floor that has historically supported the start of a new secular bull market until you’re down 50% to 60% from here.
• Make no mistake, the trend is still up. The AI investment cycle is real, earnings are growing, and the tape remains technically constructive at current levels.
• But the distance between current prices and genuine long-term fair value is wider today than at any point outside the dot-com peak.

After three decades of watching market cycles play out from both sides of the trade, I’ve come to a simple conclusion: Wall Street’s love of simple rules is one of the most dangerous aspects of investing. When stocks

34.49K Followers