Summary

• The US stock market had been undergoing a welcome broadening, but after a war-torn March, the equal weight index lost -6.0%, leaving it up just +0.7% at the end of the quarter.
• The impact of a +50% increase in the price of oil hit international equities harder than the domestic market, owing to their much greater reliance on importing energy and commodity resources.
• The risk to US growth has risen due to the Middle East tensions, yet we do not currently believe the conflict has materially increased recession odds for the economy.
• As things currently stand, we see the back-up in interest rates and widening of corporate bond spreads as potential opportunities to reset our duration and corporate bond positioning incrementally higher.
• Madison is also encouraged by the improvement in US equity market valuations as prices have eased while fundamentals, measured by earnings expectations, have continued to improve through the end of the quarter.

Market Recap - First Quarter 2026

There were many memorable moments during the first quarter of 2026, the capture of Nicolas Maduro, the perceived death of software due to AI disruption, upheaval within the private credit market, the US men's

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