Summary

• China’s economic trajectory is shifting, but not in the way many had once expected. Consumption-led rebalancing has not materialised.
• Policymakers appear willing to tolerate only a moderate slowdown, with longer-term guidance pointing to lower but more sustainable growth.
• The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) signals an ongoing rotation away from scale-led expansion towards a framework focused on productivity, resilience and technological upgrading.
• The FYP does elevate domestic demand as a more prominent growth driver, supported by services consumption, people-oriented investment and social reforms aimed at unlocking household spending.
• Where policy is most decisive is in its support for technology and industrial upgrading.

Rather than markedly pivoting to consumption, China is recommitting to manufacturing and technology, with consequences for trade, global prices and portfolios.

China’s economic trajectory is shifting, but not in the way many had once expected. Consumption-led rebalancing