Summary

• A slide lower in oil prices has helped rates dip, but we're not returning to pre-war yield levels.
• The US 10yr real yield is likely to remain elevated, and US inflation breakevens have little room to fall further.
• The ECB has already hiked once, and at least another hike is discounted.
• We anticipate more oil price volatility as a big reserve rebuild kicks off.

By Padhraic Garvey, CFA, Regional Head of Research, Americas, Benjamin Schroeder, Senior Rates Strategist and Michiel Tukker, Senior UK & Eurozone Rates Strategist

Treasury yields to remain sticky to the upside, as real yields remain elevated