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All Articles on Seeking Alpha

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Trend Following's Bond Problem
2026-04-24 · via All Articles on Seeking Alpha

Summary

  • Last month, when the U.S. began military strikes on Iran, markets delivered a reminder that the old playbooks do not always apply.
  • Equities sold off. Oil surged higher. And U.S. Treasuries, historically one of the market’s go-to safe havens during geopolitical stress, declined as yields moved sharply upward.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield moved from roughly 4.0% toward 4.3%, after already pressing near 4.5% earlier in the year before retracing.
  • Bonds have historically been one of the most important return drivers for managed futures and trend-following strategies.
Government bonds memo inscription on the page with calculation.

designer491/iStock via Getty Images

Our own Jeff Malec went solo on the Derivative last week, dishing on all sorts of topics from ski races to conferences. But one topic caught our eye in particular: talking bonds.

And particularly bonds

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