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French GDP At Risk Of Contraction
2026-05-21 · via All Articles on Seeking Alpha

Summary

  • In May, France's PMI composite index fell sharply to 43.5 from 47.6, its lowest level in five and a half years, driven by a marked deterioration in services (42.9 from 46.5 in April).
  • After a temporary improvement in manufacturing, supported by inventory build-up, activity also weakened in this sector, with the PMI falling to 48.9 from 52.8.
  • All in all, these figures are very weak and raise the likelihood of a contraction in French activity in the second quarter, following stagnation in the first.
Half-masted French flag symbolically depicting economic decline or crisis

pixinoo/iStock via Getty Images

By Charlotte de Montpellier, Senior Economist, France and Switzerland

PMIs are not always the most reliable leading indicators for the French economy, with INSEE’s business surveys generally providing a more representative picture as they better capture

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