South Korean GDP Surges, But K-Shaped Growth Is Challenge For Central Bank
2026-04-23
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Summary
- South Korea produced remarkable first quarter growth amid strong chip demand, but growth is expected to slow in the second quarter.
- We upgraded our 2026 GDP outlook, as fiscal support and strong exports absorb some negative oil impact.
- A K-shaped recovery poses challenges for the Bank of Korea.
- Amid inflation risks, we expect rate hikes in the second half.
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By Min Joo Kang, Senior Economist, South Korea and Japan
Stronger-than-expected first quarter growth sets a faster pace for 2026 growth expansion
South Korea’s GDP surged 1.7% quarter-on-quarter between January and March (vs. -0.2% in 4Q25, 0.9% market consensus and 1.0% INGf), thanks
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