Summary

• The biggest beneath-the-surface issue with the late 1990s rally versus today’s market in large-cap tech and growth is accounting quality. Today, looking at cash flow and free cash flow versus net income does not indicate anywhere near the accounting quality issues that were seen in the late 1990s.
• Another difference is the lack of real euphoria around today’s trading of tech stocks, particularly semiconductor stocks today, versus the late 1990s.
• All five years of the "average +25% return" for the S&P 500 from 1995 to 1999, were all on "bad breadth". The recent poor breadth figures for the 2026 bull market have just started in the last few months. If poor breadth continues for another 12-18 months, even as the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 outperform, then there will be some similarity to the late 1990s.
• After 18 years so far, from the bottom of this secular bull market on March 9th, 2009, we are getting close to the typical end for secular bull markets. Sentiment does seem to indicate there is more upside to the S&P 500 in ’26; however, as March 2000 showed, risk can come on quickly.

1) The biggest beneath-the-surface issue with the late 1990s rally versus today’s market in large-cap tech and growth is actually accounting quality. Qwest Communications and Joe Nacchio started the frauds unraveling in the late 1990s, only to be followed later

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