Summary

• The April labor market report showed 115,000 jobs added, nearly double expectations, with unemployment steady at 4.3%, below the Fed’s 2026 target.
• Leading indicators, including jobless claims and JOLTS, signal ongoing labor market strength, though layoffs spiked above pre-COVID levels in March.
• AI-driven worker displacement is not yet evident, as long-term unemployment and youth joblessness remain contained.
• Despite strong April data, rising U6 unemployment and declining full-time employment suggest underlying labor market softness, supporting no further Fed easing in 2026.

Introduction

Earlier today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released an unexpectedly strong labor market report for the month of April. The labor market created 115,000 jobs during the month of April, nearly double the expectations. The unemployment rate

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