Summary

• RBA decision in focus with hawkish bias: Markets are pricing a third consecutive 25 bps hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia to 4.35%, with guidance from Governor Bullock key for shaping expectations on further tightening and AUD direction.
• AUD/USD holding bullish structure for now: AUD/USD remains supported above 0.7130 within an ascending channel, with upside potential toward 0.7200+ if momentum holds.
• Downside risks tied to policy tone: A break below 0.7055 (50-day MA) could trigger a bearish reversal, especially if the RBA signals demand destruction risks from persistently high oil prices.

By Kelvin Wong

The Reserve Bank of Australia will set its monetary policy today at 12.30 pm (SGT), followed by Governor Bullock’s press conference at 1.30 pm (SGT).

The short-term swaps market has almost fully

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