Summary

• During the quarter, aluminum became the strongest-performing major base metal, rising more than 15% following supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Copper has recently reached a record high price of $6.50 per pound, even as underlying fundamentals continue sending deeply conflicting signals to the market.
• During the first quarter alone, copper warehouse inventories surged by more than 500,000 tonnes, representing an increase approaching 70%.
• Chinese copper demand growth has decelerated sharply in the past four years, and 2025 now appears likely to mark yet another year of disappointingly weak growth.
• Since 2022, global copper mine production has increased by approximately 2.1 million tonnes, meaning supply growth has exceeded demand growth by more than two-to-one.

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