Summary

• Markets are pricing in higher odds that the war with Iran has ended, but even if that proves true, the economic effects of the conflict will linger for months, if not years.
• Oil exported from the Persian Gulf typically takes 30–45 days to reach major markets in Europe, Asia, and the Americas.
• The sharp reduction in oil production and exports last month is the first sign that the disruption in global supply is beginning to reverberate.

Markets are pricing in higher odds that the war with Iran has ended, but even if that proves true, the economic effects of the conflict will linger for months, if not years.

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