Summary

• With so much in geopolitics and markets to be distracted by, the importance of the U.S. consumer can be easily overlooked. In our view, it's time the consumer came back into focus.
• Elevated oil and gas prices draw the most attention, but the inflationary reach of the conflict extends considerably further.
• We maintain our overweight to global equities, underpinned by an exceptional first quarter earnings season—84% of S&P 500 reporters beat expectations, with average year-over-year earnings growth of +27.1%.
• But we are watching consumer discretionary, financials and the labor market closely. May payrolls were solid, yet our fixed income team believes the balance of risks is tilted to the downside.

By Shannon L. Saccocia

With so much in geopolitics and markets to be distracted by, the importance of the U.S. consumer can be easily overlooked. In our view, it's time the consumer came back into focus.