Markit·2026-06-18·via All Articles on Seeking Alpha
Summary
Oil prices are forecast to remain high, with Dated Brent projected at $110/barrel in 2026, nearly 90% above pre-conflict assumptions, despite a recent peace deal.
Global consumer price inflation is expected to stay elevated at 4.1% in 2026, with the S&P Global Material Price Index (excluding energy) forecast to rise over 20%.
Monetary policy is diverging: the US Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates in 2026, while the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan raised rates.
Global real GDP growth is forecast at 2.2% in 2026, with the Eurozone seeing minimal growth of 0.2% while India is projected to grow 5.7%.
Equity markets have rebounded sharply on the peace news, but significant risks from high valuations, market concentration, and potential corrections persist.
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The economic impacts of the Middle East conflict are not over
What are the key changes in our global economic outlook this month?
The recent agreement to end the Middle East conflict points to downside
