Summary

• The United Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC+ highlights growing internal tensions and weakens the cartel's ability to coordinate supply.
• Short-term market impact remains limited due to supply disruptions linked to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
• In the medium term, the UAE's spare capacity may increase global supply once logistical constraints ease.
• Recent price declines in Brent crude oil likely reflect profit-taking after a strong rally driven by geopolitical risk.

By Łukasz Zembik

A smaller coalition from eight to seven producers

The global oil market is entering a phase of growing institutional uncertainty, as the ability of OPEC+ to coordinate supply continues to weaken. A clear manifestation of

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