Summary

• The first quarter of 2026 was characterized by elevated geopolitical risk and accelerating AI-driven disruption across the software sector and its incumbent business models.
• The period was shaped by a series of international developments, including the capture and indictment of Nicolás Maduro, escalating diplomatic tensions between the US and European NATO allies over Greenland, and a US-Israeli military operation against Iran.
• Geopolitical tensions remain a defining feature of the outlook, with the Middle East conflict introducing ongoing uncertainty and contributing to oil price volatility as supply routes face occasional disruption.

Key Takeaways

• Markets: The first quarter of 2026 was characterized by elevated geopolitical risk and accelerating AI-driven disruption across the software sector and its incumbent business models. The period was shaped by a series of international

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