Summary

• The “20% of global oil closed” framing was always misleading. In reality, the reduction in impact came primarily from four forces, and the primary source documents each.
• FactSet’s April 17 Earnings Insight shows 88% of reporting S&P 500 companies have beaten first quarter EPS estimates, well above the 10-year average of 76%.
• The market isn’t wrong to be calm about the Strait of Hormuz, and it isn’t wrong to be bid on earnings.

As of this writing, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed since February 28. Roughly 20% of the world’s seaborne oil stopped moving through the chokepoint. The International Energy Agency described the event as “the largest supply disruption in the

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