Summary

• There's a lot of chatter right now about whether the Federal Reserve is about to start raising rates again.
• Federal debt is around $39 trillion. Net interest on that debt is now running over $1 trillion a year, about 3.3% of GDP.
• A single hike does something useful for a new chair: it demonstrates independence. Warsh was appointed by a president who has made no secret of wanting lower rates.

The market expects the Fed to start hiking again, but its ability to actually do so is severely limited. One more hike may come as a gesture to show the Fed's independence, but it won't bring inflation back