Summary

• Kevin Warsh walked in with an explicit view that AI is a "significant disinflationary force" - which is his code for permission to cut rates into the largest industrial buildout in human history.
• The exponential part of the growth curve is here - where AI understands its own code and hardware. It begins rewriting its own software more efficiently. The progress accelerates because it can rewrite itself faster and more effectively than before. The cycle repeats exponentially, leading to a massive leap in capability, almost instantly.
• The timing of this becomes very interesting, because Elon Musk confirmed Optimus 3 production starts this summer. This is Tesla's humanoid robot. And it's important because the capabilities of this version (v.3) are what Elon has said many times, at scale - create effectively unlimited labor, and therefore, ultimately, a limitless-sized economy.

The Fed got a new chair on Friday. Kevin Warsh walked into a 30-year yield above 5%, inflation at 3.8%, and the most divided FOMC since 1992.

He also walked in with an explicit view

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