Summary

• SpaceX has been trading for about three days now, hitting a market cap of $2.76T, surpassing Amazon and briefly Microsoft.
• There's little doubt that SPCX has a bright future in the overlap of space, AI, and connectivity, but we expect a gap between that future and today's reality.
• SPCX's breadwinner is only Starlink, while the other sides of the business bleed cash with no signs of that slowing down anytime soon, as Musk competes with the Big Four.
• We expect shares to continue to trade higher in the short term as investor greed filters through.
• We strongly believe we've left the realm of logic, and buying shares at current levels would be more of a gamble.
• This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Tech Contrarians. Learn More »
• Sitewide Sale 2026: Get 20% Off

For lack of a better term, SpaceX (SPCX) reminds me of what most of our parents told us growing up: "If your friends jump off the roof, would you jump too?" Or in other words, if

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.