Summary

• The yield on the 10-year note finished May 22, 2026, at 4.56%, while the 2-year note ended at 4.13%.
• If we consider the first negative spread date as the starting point, the average lead time to a recession is 48 weeks, or about eleven months.
• The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed rate at 6.51%, the highest level since September.

By Jennifer Nash

The yield on the 10-year note finished May 22, 2026, at 4.56%, while the 2-year note ended at 4.13%.

The chart below overlays the daily performance of several Treasury bonds, starting from

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