Summary

• Domino's Pizza Group remains a 'Buy' at ~$5, with strong market share gains and resilient cash generation despite sector price wars.
• DPUKY leverages aggressive value promotions and modular store formats to outcompete rivals, driving a 750 bp market share gain to 52.6% in FY 2025.
• FY 2025 EBITDA fell 6.6% to £133.9M, but FCF coverage of dividends remains robust at 1.8x, supporting ongoing dividend growth.
• The base case targets a $6.70 price (20–34% upside), with a 6% dividend yield and total return potential exceeding 25% in conservative scenarios.

If there’s one phrase that really captures what’s going on in QSR Pizza right now, it’s probably 'winner takes all.'

And in a lot of markets around the world, Domino's Pizza (DPZ) really did take all the traffic they could get—even if that 'all' still isn't all that impressive.

At the end of the day, this is still a price war.

Even so, it looks like my gut feeling that Domino's Pizza Group (DPUKY) was getting hit a little too hard ended up being right on the money.

Since I said this master franchisee looked dirt-cheap around ~$4.80 (with a downside of only about ~3.7% if dividends merely stayed flat forever under the Gordon Model), Domino's UK has bounced back and already delivered close to a 10% total return, versus a bit over 7% for the S&P.

We're still below the ~$6 target I had in mind, and the last time I checked, the dividend was still covered by FCF by about 2.1x.

So, I think the question all the lads (notice I didn't use the traditional 'folks' this time) are asking themselves is whether this cash machine still has room to run from here.

It's the same story as other chains I cover, like Dine Brands (DIN) and MTY Food Group (MTY:CA). Sometimes Mr. Market only looks at same-store sales but forgets about long-term shareholder returns.

Just to give you a quick look at what still matters a lot going into FY 2026:

• QSR Pizza is resilient during recessions/downturns and highly promotion-driven. Franchisees may even see a dip in margins, but Domino's can gain market share by running value promotions as it is doing in the U.S. and Canada ('Best Deal Ever') and the UK ('Price Slice').
• New modular stores are protecting franchisee economies (only 720 sq ft costing £200,000 to £250,000, with

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