When it comes to succeeding in a post Covid and 2023 strikes theatrical landscape, pay close attention to this weekend at the summer box office, which again is bound to be rich, far exceeding last year’s second frame of the season which did $84M domestic. It’s about counter-programming in a given weekend which makes the turnstiles go ’round, and that’s a tried-and-true strategy the major studios aren’t executing much of this summer prior to August.

In fact, the top two movies alone, New Line/Warner Bros/Atomic Monster’s Mortal Kombat II with around $50M (maybe $40M-range now) and The Devil Wears Prada 2‘s estimated second weekend in the low $40Ms will alone beat the entire marketplace result from a year ago. Then there’s the third weekend of Lionsgate’s Michael with around $30M, Amazon MGM Studios’ The Sheep Detectives comedy starring Hugh Jackman ($12M+) and Paramount’s James Cameron and Billie Eilish co-directed concert film, Billie Eilish: Hit Me Hard & Soft The Tour Live in 3D ($6M-$9M). All movies, except for Mortal Kombat II (a destination for dudes), are expecting Mother’s Day business, hence the reason why they’re all here on the calendar.

The previous Mortal Kombat came out during Covid in April 2021 when Warner Bros was experimenting with the theatrical-day-and-date HBO Max release strategy, and the movie did quite well in theaters even though grosses were siphoned by a home availability with a $23.3M North America start, final $42.3M and global of $84.4M. Ala Dune: Part 2 and Godzilla X Kong, the notion is that the pure theatrical availability will boost grosses higher. Also, as we’ve previously mentioned, when the first trailer was dropped last July, it notched the best ever 24-hour traffic for a red-band spot with close to 107M views per WaveMetrix. Mortal Kombat II was previously dated for Oct. 24 but moved here given how Warners believed it had a Final Destination: Bloodlines commercial patina about it; that pic opening during the third weekend of May last year to a franchise record debut of $51.6M.

The R-rated sequel starts previews at 3PM on Thursday with the pic going in 3,400 U.S./Canada theaters in Imax, Dolby, PLF, Motion Seats, Dine-Ins and Drive-ins. Warner has lowered their expectations to $35M for the film (NRG we hear has it at $49M) with an outlook of $65M WW, $30M of that expected for international from 78 territories and 40,000 global screens in France, Germany, Italy, China, Australia, Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Spain and UK. If domestic industry forecasts hold, then the global start for the Simon McQuoid-directed movie is closer to $80M. Rotten Tomatoes critics score is at 75% fresh, much higher than the 55% Rotten of the 2021 edition.

In Mortal Kombat II, Karl Urban gets into the ring as Johnny Cage as he and his fisticuffs colleagues are pitted against one another in the ultimate battle to defeat the dark rule of Shao Kahn which threatens the very existence of the Earthrealm and its defenders.

However, when it comes to the world this weekend, Devil Wears Prada 2 will not cede its throne. International is expected to be 52%-58% off from its $156.6M opening with $65M-$75M, which would indicate a second global frame in the range of $107M-$117M. Devil 2‘s running global cume would be north of $460M on the high end.

In regards to No. 2 worldwide, it’s a toss-up between Mortal Kombat II and Michael which could also do an $80M third global take ($50M of that estimated from overseas), pushing its running cume well beyond a half billion.

The PG-rated Sheep Detectives, directed by Kyle Balda, follows George (Jackman), a shepherd who reads detective novels to his beloved sheep every night, assuming they can’t possibly understand. However, a mysterious incident disrupts life on the farm, and the sheep realize they must become the detectives. As they follow the clues and investigate human suspects, they prove that even sheep can be brilliant crime-solvers. Critics love the movie at 96% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. North American previews start at 2PM Thursday with theater count on Friday at 3,547. Seventy-nine markets are going overseas including UK, Australia, Italy, Spain, Mexico, Brazil, and Japan to name a few. The film will open in nine markets later this month including Germany, Austria, Hong Kong, and Thailand on May 14, China on May 16, and Malaysia May 27th.

Billie Eilish: Hit Me Hard & Soft was acquired by Paramount in a 50/50 split with Interscope for $20M. Previews stateside for the PG-13 movie are at 2PM tomorrow with a theater location Friday of 2,600 sites. Early access screenings were held Wednesday, April 29 at 7PM (local time) in Dolby 3D and RealD 3D. The movie was originally scheduled to go in March, but went two months later as Cameron was zhuzhing up the tech on the film. The world premiere is tonight at the Jason Reitman-run Village in Westwood which also has supped up Dolby 3D before its complete renovation. Global outlook is $12M-$15M with bows in 57 markets including Brazil, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, and the United Kingdom. No RT critical score yet.