What a difference a year makes.

Last year at the start of CinemaCon, we were questioning the existence of theatrical after a dead first quarter that had the domestic box office dragging 11% behind 2024 (this is all before A Minecraft Movie turned around the entire marketplace, literally spiking its advance tickets as the industry walked the slot machines of Caesars Palace, ultimately becoming a near $1 billion global-grossing film).

This year, the domestic box office stands at $2.26 billion, the first time that it’s been there since 2019, up 23% over the same January 1-April 12 period a year ago, per Comscore. Wide releases (movies opening in more than 1,000 theaters) hit 162 last year, ahead of pre-Covid numbers like in 2019, when there were only 138. More people are going to the movies this year also, with admissions at 154 million, up 16% over last year, according to EntTelligence.

But there’s agita in the air that these box office boom times and 45-day window extensions are barreling toward an apocalypse. That would be because of the looming Paramount-Warner Bros merger, which is expected to close before Q4 this year.

Why worry? Paramount CEO David Ellison has continually promised 30 films a year between the studios, and that he’ll keep Warner Bros and Paramount separate.

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Despite Ellison’s reputation for being pro-theatrical and pro-filmmaker, the problem is that few can math out his math when it comes to the P&A sustainability and dating of movies (especially with Hollywood talent and filmmaker egos being part of release-date equations). Exhibit A in exhibitor paranoia is the aftermath of the Disney-Fox merger, which yielded $1 billion less in box office between 2016-2025, a 70% drop.

Any exhibitor looking to receive immediate relief from the anxiety at hand this week won’t find it. Paramount distribution executives can’t talk with theater owners and bookers about a future with Warner Bros, as that’s gun-jumping the close of the deal. It’s also TBD whether Ellison shows up on stage physically or digitally at the Caesars Palace Colosseum during Paramount’s presentation Thursday. A live turnout by the Flyboys actor-turned-studio boss would indeed go a long way with theater owners.

“We’ve had positive and constructive conversations,” Michael O’Leary, CEO and president of exhibitor global trade org Cinema United, tells Deadline about conversing with Ellison about the future.

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“I think he’s sincere in what he’s saying, given the significant impact it will have, but we need more than verbal assurances,” O’Leary tells Deadline. “We’ve heard these things before. ‘No one buys a movie studio to make fewer movies.’ David Zaslav came to CinemaCon three years ago and said Warner Bros would make 20 movies a year. They never did.”

What’s interesting is that not everyone in exhibition land is united when it comes to an attitude toward the Paramount-Warner Bros merger. AMC circuit boss Adam Aron reportedly isn’t worried about a combined Warner Bros-Paramount future. Recently at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference, Cinemark CEO Sean Gamble came out as a fan the major studio merger, exclaiming, “Paramount and Warner Bros have been longstanding supporters of theatrical exhibition, great partners of Cinemark for decades. I think, based on their actions over many, many years, I think that’s a real positive.”

If 30 Films, Here’s The Way

As we’ve reported before, a combined Warner Bros and Paramount after Q4 2026 will organically see 42 theatrical releases by end of 2027, according to Comscore. Already, there are a few instances where the studios are doubling up on the same weekend — quite often in a counter-programming situation, as you can see in the chart below. The whole situation of 30 films a year is a 2029 and 2030 problem.

“They’ll have $79 billion in debt, and the only way they’ll be able to get out of that is not by putting movies simply on Paramount+, but by releasing them theatrically,” says one rival studio business affairs executive.

That makes sense, given how Paramount+ and HBO Max are scaling up to around 172 million subs, still fourth place behind Netflix (325M), Amazon’s Prime Video (200M) and Disney+ (195M).

One source familiar with a combined Paramount-Warner Bros explains, “Anyone who is saying that 30 films isn’t possible, that’s only because they’re thinking of that execution under a standard studio structure. However, both studios are capable of that level of output, and to achieve that means of doing business, they’ll have to be structured differently from the way that others in town are conceiving. If Paramount+ and HBO Max want to get to first, they’re going to have to invest more, and so they’ll need to make 30 films a year.”

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Once upon a time, in the late 1990s into the early 2000s, it was quite common for two studios to co-exist under a major studio umbrella — with different production, marketing, distribution and international distribution arms — producing around 30 films a year. We’re talking specifically about Disney/Touchstone/Miramax and Warner Bros/New Line. So, it’s been done before, and it’s expensive in regards to overhead. But we haven’t seen an operation like those in the streaming era.

New Line got by on big swings like Lord of the Rings by selling foreign (though Warner Bros International also distributed these pics abroad; ditto for Buena Vista International, which would also release a bulk of Miramax fare overseas). In August 2008, following the bombing of the $180M fantasy film The Golden Compass the year before, New Line was further absorbed into Warner Bros, with the staff dropping from 500 to 50, the feature output was reduced to six to eight films a year.

In 2005, the Weinsteins’ contracts weren’t renewed, and Disney fully absorbed Miramax, turning it into a label for smaller-budget films (as opposed to the pricey movies, such as Gangs of New York and Master and Commander, in which Miramax was involved). Following Disney’s 2009 purchase of Marvel Studios, producing smaller movies was no longer a priority for Disney, so they sold the brand.

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In the case of Paramount-Warner Bros, plans regarding marketing and distribution consolidation and whether or not Warner Bros Motion Picture chiefs Michael De Luca and Pam Abdy are staying — again, that’s all gun-jumping, with no answers apparent at this CinemaCon.

Another big question is whether Paramount and Warner Bros will be able to compete against each other on projects once merged. Many rival studio executives doubt it’s possible. Once upon a time, Miramax and Buena Vista International competed against each other for acquisitions at the film festival markets; we’re told they got in a fight over some territories for the Geoffrey Rush movie Shine. Given the hostility, from that point onward “it became a gentleman’s agreement,” says a vet source about how the two studios allocated feature product between them.

A recent NRG report focusing on Paramount-Warner Bros says that the goal of 30 films annually would be far above what the two studios combined have been doing post-Covid (which is 14-20 movies).

“The combined box office from entities averaged $2.4 billion from 2015-2019, and $2.2 billion from 2023-2025. If this expanded slate comes to fruition, it’s fair to continue to expect $2 billion-plus annually given the number of tentpole franchises at these two historic studios,” says the report.

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NRG outlined three scenarios for a Paramount-Warner Bros future and what their outcomes might be:

A ramp-up to 25 movies annually would restore the volume missing in the marketplace, “likely driving a meaningful increase in moviegoing, assuming that the quality and the scale of the releases mirrors what’s to be expected from Paramount and Warner Bros.”

At 20 movies annually, “this scenario maintains current performance levels. It does not solve the underlying issue: the market needs more consistent volume and demand to grow.”

At 15 movies a year, the merger would mean fewer chances of breakout hits. The overall motion picture ecosystem would rely on fewer tentpoles. “Even if top titles perform well, the lost volume would likely drag the total box office down meaningfully. This is the highest-risk scenario for theatrical sustainability.”

The tracking entertainment stat org also said that in regards to the Paramount-Warner Bros merger, “The main sentiment in focus groups expressed concern that reduced competition would lead to less creativity and fewer risks.”

As far as Paramount-Warner Bros’ future plans for 30 movies annually beyond 2027, it’s not about pulling that feat off, rather it’s will the market absorb it?

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