The good news is that this Memorial Day weekend won’t be the lowest post Covid, and Lucasfilm/Disney’s Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu won’t open as low as Warner Bros’ Furiosa did two years ago at this time with a $32.3M 4-day. The new hope is that the Jon Favreau directed, Dave Filoni EP’ed and co-written feature will meet or exceed its $80M 4-day tracking in North America. That all depends on whether families show up and push the first Star Wars film in seven years to a bigger number. Burger King is a promo partner on the pic, so hopefully Whoopers will have more influence on potential moviegoers than blue milk did for Luke Skywalker.

Global outlook is $160M WW, $80M of that from a 98% footprint offshore. The only territory not going this weekend is Korea. That start for the $165M net production would be slightly ahead of the global opening of 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story in like-for-likes. That box office low point in the franchise which went into theaters with a lot of behind-the-scenes melodrama (Lord & Miller were fired with the directing reigns handed to Ron Howard), posted a 4-day over Memorial Day weekend of $103M domestic, and another $52M abroad.

North American presales for Mandalorian and Grogu stand at $25M, which is ahead of Project Hail Mary at the same point in time ($80.5M 3-day opening) and in line with Avatar: Fire and Ash ($89.1M 3-day). The Favreau, Filoni and Noah Kloor written movie is booked in 4,300 theaters, and of that 425 are Imax, with the full suite of PLF, 4DX, 3D and ScreenX. The force is with Mandalorian and Grogu as the movie will have an exclusive three-week play in Imax. Previews start Thursday at 2PM, hard. No early fan Wednesday screenings. The review embargo just lifted, and critics, gulp, stand at 61% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. Solo: A Star Wars Story was at 69% fresh.

While Star Wars fans cry and demand that the studio deliver a Kylo Ren movie to the point of flying biplanes over the Burbank lot, the studio’s thinking for a Mandalorian and Grogu movie was a pure overall franchise play from parks to toys. There’s been 13 million units of Grogu merchandise sold during the series first two years on Disney+. And, yes, before we forget, this is the first big screen adaptation of a Disney+ series. Also, at Disneyland and Disney the Millenium Falcon ride is getting a makeover with Smugglers Run, a mission tied to the bounty hunter and Baby Yoda movie.

In regards to overseas, Star Wars typically rallies in UK, Australia, Germany and Japan. Favreau is promoting the film currently in Japan after having made a stop in Mexico. Latin America is typically not a place for sci-fi, however, hopefully the family of it all with Mandalorian and Grogu works to its benefit. There’s not nostalgia factor for the George Lucas franchise in China. Disney put some muscle behind 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens there, that pic in reported grossing $124M due to the demand for Hollywood titles. But grosses fell to $20.5M with 2019’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, and that was before Covid set in.

Among the stateside competition this weekend, Neon has their Boots Riley satirical comedy starring Keke Palmer, Taylour Paige, Naomi Ackie, Poppy Liu and Eiza Gonzalez, I Love Boosters, in 2000 theaters which per industry estimates looks to do in the high single digits over 4 days. Women over 25 are the best bet in first choice right now for the comedy which world premiered back in March at SXSW. Rotten Tomatoes reviews are in great standing at 93% fresh.

Paramount’s André Øvredal R-rated horror pic Passenger hopes to haul $9M-$10M over 4-days with best first choice from women and men under 25. Pic is booked at 2,500 theaters with previews beginning at 2PM Thursday. Internationally, the film will open this week in 49 markets including Australia, Brazil, France, Italy, Mexico, Spain, and the United Kingdom. No RT reviews yet.