MONDAY AM UPDATE: The last time a Star Wars movie under Disney ownership registered a low opening, it was 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story with an $84M 3-day, $103M 4-day and $153M WW (in like for likes). We bashed that result, the ambitious expansion of Star Wars lore’s ticket sales impacted by behind-the-scenes drama, in addition to the fact that Alden Ehrenreich was no Harrison Ford in his mug.

Now, Disney’s latest Lucasfilm title, this weekend’s Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu is opening lower with $81M 3-day and 4-day $100M U.S., lower than Solo: A Star Wars Story‘s domestic start. Global is at $163M WW with $63M from 51 offshore territories. The movie was made under the previous Lucasfilm Boss Kathleen Kennedy, but it’s executive produced and co-written by Dave Filoni, who is the new co-Lucasfilm Head. A lot of fans trust him with the brand and he’s expanded the prequel lore in the Ahsoka and Anakin storylines, which he’s transferred from animation to live-action series, with some of those characters in this movie.

Disney is pom-poming the opening for Mandalorian and Grogu this weekend. The movie was cheaper than Solo (which was more expensive due to the handoff of directors halfway through from Lord & Miller to Ron Howard), $165M net to $300M before global P&A, so that’s commendable and when you factor in the tail of merchandise, it will be fine. “Sometimes these movies make more money in merchandise than at the box office,” one talent reps tells us, and he’s right: Star Wars is one of the top five toy franchises with $1 billion in retail sales annually with 13M Grogu toys sold during the first two years of the streaming series’ drop. There’s also the whole notion that the movie will have a long tail impact on the Parks; where the Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run just got a revamp connected to the film with a new Mandalorian and Grogu mission. There’s also the logical blah blah that a sequel is good for the greater franchise ecosystem, read viewers will rewatch Star Wars movies on Disney+, etc. There was also a rich $100M promotional partner campaign for Mandalorian and Grogu which includes such brands as Burger King (reteaming with Star Wars for the first time in 20 years), Volkswagen, Nilla Wafers, Coca-Cola, Hertz, Alaska Airlines, Walmart, Bath & Body Works, Schick and more.

Mandalorian and Grogu has better audience reactions than reviews (one fanboy site headline exclaimed “Star Wars: Stick a Fork in It, It’s Done”). Deadline film critic and scholar Damon Wise, wrote in his review, that the franchise is “showing its age.”

“Walk into any bar, on any street, in any city, on any planet and you’ll find a Star Wars fan who thinks they know what’s going wrong with the franchise and how to fix it….The same fans are tired of being in the limbo between the original films and the prequels, and they want to see more of the minor characters than the usual suspects (when you break it down, TM&G is basically The Wonder Years version of Bobba Fett, Jabba the Hutt and Yoda).” 

But despite what the critics things, audience reactions here for the bounty hunter and Baby Yoda are very similar to Solo with A- CinemaScore and 71% definite recommend on PostTrak. The Jon Favreau directed movie is ahead of tracking which was pegged at $80M 4-day. And, yes, among Memorial Day starts at the domestic B.O., Mandalorian and Grogu, is the 12th best, and post Covid it’s the fourth best for the holiday frame. So, industry and exhibition be thankful.

But for the love of God, can we please acknowledge the sheer bungling in adapting a streaming series for the big screen? Clearly, this is a reason when many didn’t show up in droves, and it’s why the first Star Wars movie since 2019’s Rise of Skywalker isn’t higher in ticket sales. The pic’s admissions at 5M aren’t at a Lilo & Stich level (which was 10.5M per Entelligence in that movie’s Memorial Day weekend opening last year). Moviegoers are waiting to see Mandalorian and Grogu at home. In PostTrak exits, 38% of the audience say they’ll see it again in cinemas, but 39% want to watch it again for free or on streaming. Hopefully, there will be some legs at the B.O., and audiences won’t judge the movie off of its lackluster critical reviews. In the past, Disney has been able to propel the success of its TV fare on the big screen, but that was years ago in a pre-streaming world when people weren’t fierce about their moviegoing habits, i.e. 2008’s High School Musical 3 ($42M domestic opening, $90M final U.S./Canada, $253M WW) and Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds concert ($31M opening, $65M domestic, $70.6M WW), as well as 2009’s Hannah Montana: The Movie ($32.3M opening, $79.5M domestic, $155.6M WW).

When it came to the fact that this was a streaming property, and that audiences wouldn’t attend in droves — Disney didn’t seem concerned about that hurdle. For the big screen take of a series that has clocked 1.3 billion hours worldwide, and in the hands of hitmaker Favreau who has delivered to Disney such blockbusters as 2019’s The Lion King ($1.6B) and near billion-grossing The Jungle Book, there was no way to go wrong. And they’re right. There was no hiccups or behind-the-scenes melodrama in the making of Mandalorian and Grogu (from what we’ve heard). The pic was sold on its family element and even tried to stoke fans with images in trailers of Jabba the Hutt’s family, AT ATs and snowtroopers. But for some fans and critics, they weren’t asking for a juvenile next chapter in Star Wars. Currently, what’s blowing many fans minds to the point that they’re flying a biplane over Disney’s Burbank lot is that the studio passed on making the Steven Soderbergh directed Adam Driver starring next legacy chapter The Hunt for Ben Solo. That’s a big WTF for the faithful, however, I hear that movie is definitely not being made (sometimes with his arthouse sensibility, Soderbergh has can put a pause in the descion-making of studio executives). As Lucasfilm retools itself post the wipeout of Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, I understand that the latest Star Wars movie was in a feasible pole position of a green light versus the other post-Episode IX projects in the works.

But the bigger point here is that quite often Disney will defend their green lights of franchise movies for the greater good of the ancillaries. However, if a film like Snow White, or Pirates of the Caribbean, or the latest Star Wars is registering lower than stellar grosses for the franchise — what good is that for the longer tail? Doesn’t that impede demand? Who wants to buy Snow White toys if the movie has tanked or waned at the box office.

Star Wars movies come once in a blue moon, so make them epic and unforgettable, Disney. Solo was a cautionary tale in what happens when you over exploit the Star Wars franchise too fast for fans, and to the nth degree of a Marvel expansion (which was the original plan for Star Wars once Disney got its hands on the George Lucas born IP, make all legacy character movies, i.e. Obi-Wan Kenobi, Yoda, Princess Leia etc were set to get their own movies). Solo forced Disney to ratchet down development of Star Wars movies, make them with TLC and when it came to big swings like Boba Fett, don’t go big screen, rather small.

Star Wars is about sequels. Does the opening here for Mandalorian and Grogu even demand one? I don’t think so. If anything, this is a bittersweet result at the box office and it isn’t an improvement on Solo‘s number.

Onward, to Shawn Levy’s original Ryan Gosling starring tale, Straighter, out next Memorial Day weekend, May 28, 2027.