Military costs are set to rise the longer the conflict goes on, although analysts say the approaching midterm elections might be a motivating factor for Trump to curtail U.S. involvement, amid indications the war is damaging Republican prospects. President Donald Trump and Administration officials have offered conflicting timeframes for how long the strikes will continue. After initially saying the war would last around a month, Trump has indicated it could carry on as long as it takes to topple Iran’s government and end the nuclear threat.

Beyond the cost of munitions and military hardware, Americans are already feeling the effects of the war at the gas pump, and rising food prices could soon follow as the war disrupts global trade. Mortgage rates are climbing amid renewed inflation threats. And, stock markets have fallen as concerns grow about the war’s wider economic impact. 

“The war is putting upward pressure on prices for gasoline, electricity, and groceries through higher transportation, packaging and fertilizer costs,” says Wayne Winegarden, an economist at the Pacific Research Institute. “This will worsen affordability for families already struggling with the high cost of living.”

Here’s how the war could impact Americans’ wallets.

Shipping

The war has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which many of the world’s commodities pass, as Iran, which controls the northern side of the strait, has threatened to fire on any ships that attempt passage. A fifth of the world’s oil transits through the strait, along with shipments of fertilizer, fertilizer feedstocks, and liquefied natural gas, Heron Lim, a lecturer of economics with ESSEC Business School, tells TIME. Chemical feedstocks used to manufacture electronics, semiconductors, plastics, and rubber also pass through the strait, while exports of pharmaceuticals, garments and batteries pass in the other direction from Asia.

Iran has allegedly laid mines along the route and the U.S. has struck Iranian minelaying ships. U.S. plans to offer Navy escorts for tankers through the strait are not a sustainable solution if the conflict continues, Lim says. 

Large-scale rerouting is also not a realistic solution, Lim says, with shipping through the Suez Canal linking the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea also facing renewed threats of attacks from the Iran-backed Houthis.

“Even if ships attempt to reroute, the geography makes alternatives impractical for the volume of trade that normally passes through Hormuz,” says Lim. “Even if temporary, rising insurance costs, and increased perceived risk are rippling through global supply chains, demonstrating their fragility.”

Gas, heating and electricity

The Middle East produces around 30% of the world’s oil and Americans are already seeing the war’s impact at the gas pump as global oil prices have spiked above $100 a barrel several times since the conflict began on Feb. 28. 

According to the AAA motor club, the average price of gas hit nearly $3.60 a gallon on March 12—a jump of nearly 35 cents in a week. 

Economists say the rise in oil prices will likely raise the cost of a range of household goods, including anything that requires shipping as higher fuel prices push up the cost of land, sea and air transport.

Households could also soon see higher heating and electricity bills amid rising energy costs, analysts say. Some countries around the world have already begun rolling out measures aimed at prioritizing household energy needs and curbing electricity use.

Whether those rising costs and inflationary pressures persist will largely depend on how soon the conflict is de-escalated and how soon transit through Hormuz can safely resume, according to analysts.

“If traffic through the Strait remains largely halted, I expect prices to continue rising. Current disruptions have the potential to trigger an unprecedented supply shock,” says Ruben Nizard, head of sector research at analytics firm Coface, adding that prolonged disruptions could raise crude oil prices beyond the 2022 peak of $127 a barrel or even the all-time high of $147 a barrel.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps warned on March 8 that U.S. and Israeli attacks on its energy infrastructure would be met with retaliatory strikes on energy sites across the Middle East. “If you can tolerate oil at more than $200 per barrel, continue this game,” the IRGC said.

Diversifying away from Middle Eastern oil would not be realistic to cool prices in the short term, Winegarden says.

Member countries of the International Energy Agency on Wednesday unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil into the global market, the largest release in history. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced the same day that the U.S. will release 172 million barrels from its emergency oil reserve in an effort to ease surging crude and fuel prices.

“It is a game of musical chairs with many more players than chairs,” says Winegarden. “The release of strategic petroleum reserves will be a temporary salve, but will not have significant impacts especially if the conflict persists for a long time.”

Fertilizer, agriculture, and food

In a Monday letter to Trump, Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation, warned that farmers across the U.S. would face disruptions in fertilizer supply and higher prices, which would translate into higher grocery prices for consumers.

The U.S. “risks a shortfall in crops,” Duvall wrote. “Not only is this a threat to our food security—and by extension our national security—such a production shock could contribute to inflationary pressures across the U.S. economy.”

The Persian Gulf is a major source of global fertilizer supply because natural gas is an essential feedstock for several fertilizers, including urea, the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer. Gulf states produce nearly 49% of global urea exports and 30% of global ammonia exports, according to an analysis by American Farm Bureau economists, and around a third of the world’s urea transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Urea prices have already risen by 35% since the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Feb. 28.

Almost half of the world’s supply of sulfur, a byproduct of oil and gas refining that is used to produce fertilizers, also comes from the Gulf, according to CRU Group. Sulfur is also used in the manufacturing sector.

“If ships cannot bring fertilizer to market, farmers may use less, potentially reducing crop yields and increasing food costs,” says Lim.

American Farm Bureau economists said a reduction in Middle East supply could force countries like India and Brazil that rely heavily on the Gulf to look for alternative suppliers, driving up global prices which in turn could hurt U.S. farmers. Big global producers like China may also consider imposing export restrictions to meet domestic demand. “This means that even though the United States does not directly import large quantities of fertilizer from the Middle East, domestic fertilizer markets still respond to price movements in the region,” the farm bureau said.

Airfares

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby warned earlier this week that airfares are also likely to increase, because jet fuel is becoming more expensive. The price of jet fuel has risen around 58% since the war began.

Several airlines have already increased their fuel surcharges. Cathay Pacific Airways and its budget carrier HK Express nearly doubled their fuel surcharges beginning Wednesday. Hong Kong Airlines also raised its fuel surcharge this week.

Malaysia’s Transport Minister Anthony Loke said in a post on Thursday that airlines may have to suspend some flights in order to curb fuel demands while prioritizing air cargo services for goods including food.

Manufacturing and technology

Around 8% of the world’s aluminum is produced in the Persian Gulf, according to the International Aluminum Institute, due to the fact that processing the metal requires large amounts of energy. Amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, aluminum smelters in Qatar and Bahrain have paused shipments of the metal.

The disruptions have already raised aluminum prices to their highest level in nearly four years. That surge could drive up the cost of autos, and lead to higher costs in the construction and aerospace industries, Lim says.

The Middle East also accounts for a significant amount of the world’s helium, a byproduct of natural gas processing that plays a crucial role in semiconductor manufacturing and has a range of other uses including in medical imaging, electric vehicle batteries, and defense technologies. The trade disruptions could push up the price of consumer electronics including iPhones and laptops.

“The war has already been hitting Americans in their wallets from the first day. Gas prices have spiked, mortgage rates are climbing due to fears of increased inflation, and the conflict has driven up the cost of oil and shipping, which risks a global recession,” says William Figueroa, an assistant professor of international relations at the University of Groningen.