A conservative admirer of U.S. President Donald Trump and a leftist senator will go head-to-head in a run-off election that will decide Colombia’s next president later this month.

Abelardo de la Espriella, a tough-talking lawyer and businessman, took the lead in Colombia’s presidential election on Sunday night, with about 43.7% of the total votes according to results released by the national civil registry, while Iván Cepeda, a seasoned politician from the Pacto Histórico party led by incumbent President Gustavo Petro, followed with 40.9%. 

But with neither securing an outright majority, the two are headed for what’s expected to be a highly polarized second round of voting on June 21, which may determine Colombia’s direction and the future of its relationships with other countries, including the U.S.

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Petro, however, has cast doubt on the results of the first round of voting, alleging in a social media post that the preliminary vote-counting software added 800,000 voters who do not exist. Petro said that the only results that he would “heed and accept” are those that come out of the official scrutiny process—a dayslong process wherein Colombian commissions of judges, notaries, and other delegates review election records.

Cepeda similarly challenged Sunday’s vote results. “Only when the vote-counting commissions have fully clarified what happened will we comment on tonight’s results,” Cepeda said.

The elections are expected to be a referendum on Petro, Colombia’s first leftist President, as progressive leaders in Latin America increasingly face pressure—not only from their respective constituents, but also from the Trump Administration—to focus more on curbing gang violence and ramping up domestic security. 

Here’s what to know.

Who is Abelardo de la Espriella?

De la Espriella, 47, who refers to himself as “The Tiger,” is a political novice running as an independent under a movement called Defensores de la Patria (Defenders of the Homeland) and positions himself as an anti-establishment conservative.

He has publicly spoken in favor of the Administrations of Donald Trump in the U.S., Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, and Javier Milei in Argentina. Milei congratulated de la Espriella on social media for his first-round victory, adding that if the second round yields the same results, Colombia will “rejoin the concert of Free Nations.”

Like Trump, de la Espriella has spoken against multilateral institutions like the United Nations and the Inter-American Court of Human Rights, and he said he would withdraw Colombia from organizations that “have served no purpose.” 

Like El Salvador’s Bukele, de la Espriella presents himself as tough on crime, countering Petro’s “total peace” approach of attempting dialogue with armed rebels to end violence in the country. De la Espriella promised to “fight with an iron fist the criminals, the corrupt, the unpunished criminals and anyone who intends to continue threatening the existence of Colombia.” Also mirroring Bukele’s approach, de la Espriella has proposed the construction of 10 megaprisons.

The prisons are just one part of de la Espriella’s larger plans for Colombia’s security: in his campaign manifesto, he said he plans to launch a nationwide military offensive to enforce better state control in 90 days, and he pledged to strengthen the country’s armed forces through drones and artificial intelligence. He also plans to counter drug-trafficking by eliminating 330,000 hectares of coca farms—by any means necessary.

But de la Espriella’s opponents question his commitment to cracking down on crime, after he represented several controversial figures in Colombia. He was the former lawyer of David Murcia Guzmán, who masterminded a giant pyramid scheme in the country, and of Alex Saab, a close business associate of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro who was deported to the U.S. last month and indicted for money laundering. De la Espriella also represented some high-profile victims, including Natalia Ponce de León, who was the target of an acid attack in 2014, and Rosa Elvira Cely, whose murder in 2012 generated national outrage and led to the creation of Colombia’s femicide laws.

The lawyer, who is married and has four children, denied that he is far-right. Speaking to Agence France-Presse in February, de la Espriella said it was “absurd” to describe him as such despite his links to right-wing figures and conservative rhetoric. "Someone who is far right does not believe in democracy or in the separation of powers," he said, adding that he will respect Colombia’s constitution. “I’m a democrat.”

Who is Iván Cepeda?

If de la Espriella promises radical change in Colombia, Cepeda, 63, offers continuity. Cepeda, a Bogotá native, is a political veteran who led in opinion polling before the Sunday elections. 

Cepeda owes some of his popularity not only to Petro but also to his father Manuel Cepeda, a former Unión Patriótica senator and member of Colombia’s Communist Party who was assassinated by paramilitaries in 1994. The younger Cepeda then rallied for human rights and investigations into state and paramilitary violence. He established groups that intended to seek justice for victims of state-sponsored killings, but amid threats to his life, he went into self-exile overseas for a few years. 

In 2010, back in Colombia, he entered politics by winning an election to be a congressman and later won a Senate seat in 2014. As senator, Cepeda exposed former President Álvaro Uribe's alleged ties to paramilitary groups. Uribe sued Cepeda for allegedly manipulating witnesses, but the Supreme Court cleared Cepeda of wrongdoing. Uribe was himself later charged and convicted of bribing witnesses in the same case, though the conviction was overturned months later.

In line with Petro’s progressive agenda, Cepeda has vowed to continue peace pact negotiations. Cepeda is often described as one of the architects of Petro’s “total peace” strategy, and he was also involved in talks that led to a 2016 deal between the Colombian government and the now-defunct Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) guerrilla group, which demobilized thousands of rebel fighters. But critics, including the Nobel Peace Prize-winning former President Juan Manuel Santos, have called Petro’s “total peace” strategy a “failure” for its poor implementation that eventually paved the way for the proliferation of armed rebels in other parts of Colombia.

Compared to his political opponent de la Espriella, Cepeda espouses a human-centric approach to drugs in Colombia. He rejects widespread herbicide spraying as a means to cut the supply of drug crops, opting for farmers to agree to replace them with legal alternatives, with government assistance. According to El Espectador, Cepeda has explained that most farmers plant coca crops not out of choice but due to a lack of available resources.

Cepeda has pledged to implement "social capitalism" as President, including expanding income support and social benefits for marginalized groups. He has also promised ​an “agrarian revolution”—to expand rural land reform ⁠efforts by handing 1 million ha. to those who have lost land amid clashes between government forces, paramilitaries, and rebels. 

What are the implications for U.S.-Colombia ties?

Both de la Espriella and Cepeda want to improve diplomatic ties with the U.S., but being on opposite sides of the political spectrum means their approaches are vastly different. The two countries are longstanding security allies, but Trump has criticized Colombia under Petro for supposedly failing to stem the supply of cocaine and has even mused about a possible military intervention similar to that in Venezuela.

Like Petro, Cepeda has publicly criticized the U.S.’s exertions of influence in Colombian affairs. “We’re open to having a constructive relationship with the U.S. government, but they can’t treat us like their lackeys, like slaves, like a colony,” Cepeda said in a speech last October. Cepeda said in early May that while he hopes Colombia has a “cordial” relationship with the U.S., it is not a “vassal state.”

If de la Espriella wins in the second round, he’s expected to bring the country ideologically closer to the U.S., in line with Trump’s push to influence affairs within Latin America. Recent elections in the region show a rightward shift, including in Chile, Costa Rica, and Peru.

Speaking to Agencia EFE in March, de la Espriella said that he admires Trump’s “cultural battle against wokism, against globalism,” and that, should he win, he will fortify “the military alliance with the United States and with the State of Israel,”after Petro broke off diplomatic relations with Israel in 2024 because of the war in the Gaza Strip.